Here are Bob Lefsetz’s predictions for 2015.
My favorite is:
14. Baby boomers will continue to run the music business. No significant change will happen until they retire, which is at least a half decade off.
Applied to the church, I’d say it this way:
Baby boomers will continue to run the church. No significant change will happen until they die (or get too old to care), which is at least a half decade off.
In the music business, I get it. Those damned Boomers have spent their whole lives waiting for the payoff in control of the money machine. In church, I don’t.
The founder of our movement, a working stiff (carpenter), told us two things about just this sort of situation:
Don’t lord it over each other when you do get your hands on the levels of the machine.
If you want to keep your life, you’ll lose it.
This isn’t complicated. Church Booomers can’t have it both ways. Talking to them, I hear them wanting simultaneous things happening:
Keep this church exactly like it is. (I like it this way.) &
I want you (younger generation) to come right now.
The youngers have shown they’re not interested. They’re voting with their feet and those feet aren’t coming into your church. So you’re left with two options:
- Stop complaining about their ‘not coming’. If you want to keep it like it is, fine. It’s America. Nobody is forcing your church to change. But you do have to stop complaining. You want it your way. Cool, keep it that way. But you don’t get to complain about their no-shows.
- Try something and see if the no-shows show up. As a mentor used to say to me,
“Jeff you can’t look at that problem and have it stare back at you, or you can try to do something about it.”
Lefsetz is right, nothing’s gonna change for a while. But it should would be nice if it did.
This is worth the 10 minutes and the graphics are cool too.
We’re looking at this from a school perspective – which customers do we have? What can we provide for either of them or both?
A Tour Guide to The Two Planets: NEO and Traditional from MEGA Labs on Vimeo.
My Human Geography class is studying culture right now. Specifically the difference between popular and folk. As I was preparing for that, I remember watching this Charlie Rose interview with Jack Black.
Black makes a couple of important points:
Paramount was only interested in selling furniture (they didn’t care about the music)
They would put anyone in front of the microphone if they thought they could sell 10 records
They exposed the greater United States to a whole bunch of different kinds of music that would have long-lasting cultural impacts.
It reminds me of Gary Vee’s post about depth. As Jack Black says, “Each of these people – women and minorities – are getting to tell their stories in their own voice.”
Here’s the Spotify list that will give you a portion of the Paramount period.
I heard this quote on the Tim Ferris show with Rolf Potts, author of Vagabonding. During the show, Potts mentions this quote (attributed to Mark Twain):
God created war so Americans would learn geography.
Being a human geography teacher, I know this to be true. Many of my students don’t remember 9/11, they were toddlers or smaller. They don’t remember our 2nd go-round in Iraq, much less the first in 1990-91.
So when Obama gives a speech about ISIL, they wonder several things:
- What is he talking about?
- Where in the world are the places he’s talking about?
Vox (in their 14 maps that explain ISIS) has done a great job of showing this critical geography to us. Here’s one of the maps that shows ISIS control.
In our Theory of Knowledge class this past week, we assigned groups of students to represent each of the players involved:
What’s amazing is how fast my students could get up to speed on the complexity and dynamics of the region. Secondly, when each group presented what their country wanted, you get a sense of the challenge involved. Every country wants something different in this part of the world and there’s very little commonality.
Regardless of what you (or I) think should happen in this part of the world, or what American involvement should be, we should take Twain’s advice and learn the geography – if for no other reason than it’s a gift (divine or otherwise).
One of my AP US History students asked me if this was the most that a party had controlled the House of Representatives. I didn’t know so we looked it up.
Here’s what we found:
“Combined–Control of the U.S. House of Representatives – Control of the U.S. Senate” by ChrisnHouston – File:Control of the U.S. Senate.PNG
File:Control of the U.S. House of Representatives.PNG. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Look at the second box (that’s the House).
Turns out in the 1940’s the Democrats controlled almost 80% of the House. Republicans have 244 out of 435, so they’re getting there (56%). To reach those 1940’s #’s the GOP would have to win almost 90 more seats.
Then my student asked a different question:
Does a whooping in the House mean the GOP will win the 2016 presidency?
Not so fast. Why? Because the geographic map (top-right) is misleading. We have to pay attention to where the populations are located. As Obama showed in 2008 & 2012, winning the cities by enough to offset the rural areas was a winning gig.
Here’s a population proportional map of the House.
Where the voters are still matters. It’s not real estate, it’s voters. We’ll see in 2016.
H/T to Fast Company for this.
I try to stay out of meetings as much as possible. I find them brutal and these ‘types’ in this video are immediately recognizable.
If a meeting is inevitable, I propose these three things:
- Follow Jason Fried’s advice and don’t have the meeting in the first place.
- Follow Seth Godin’s advice and do not ask this question
- If you must have a meeting, plan, plan, plan it well. As the great John Wooden once said:
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
Will Catalonia secede from Spain? This Nation article seems to think so.
“For Spain, the secession of Catalonia—and the Basque Country, which wouldn’t take long to follow—would mean the departure of two of its wealthiest regions and would therefore be a significant loss.”
But Colm dismissed my argument:
“But this loss would bring about greater political stability. It would be advantageous for everybody.”
As Juan Enriquez says, “People assume stability where there isn’t any.”
Juan Enriquez – PopTech 2006 from PopTech on Vimeo.
In his book, The Untied States of America, he shows how
No U.S. President has ever been buried under the same flag he was born under.
Catalonia and Spain are in a similar space.
We’re only 5 – 7 games into the new NBA season, but I like this early look at why the Portland Trailblazers are so much better than the rest of the Northwest Division.
I compared a team’s offensive and defensive efficiencies with the current NBA average. Obviously, you want positive numbers (above the league average). The Blazers are solid on both fronts, the Jazz only on one. What they get on one end of the floor, they give away at the other end.
The Thunder are obviously missing their two stars and the Timberwolves are missing K-Love.
Tyler Cowen always finds interesting ways to look at things. As he posts here, population in Europe will continue to age and the young will increasingly come from Africa and Asia to work.
Here’s Tyler’s Upshot article and it’s not complicated – if you’re a rich country, you need immigrants. Just trying to have more babies isn’t really a strategy.
Tom Barnett puts it this way,
The core countries have the money and the jobs, but not the people. Outside the core, they have the people, but not the jobs. We’re gonna need someone to turn us over in our hospital beds.
Here’s Barnett talking about the flow of people (around 6:30 mark is where he talks about the job flow from the gap to the core).
Last but not least is the populationpyramid.net site. Here you can play with any country you like from now to 2100. The key to population pyramids is their shape. Japan’s in serious trouble. They’re not replacing their dying and they won’t follow Cowen’s advice to allow immigration.