Tag Archives: fivethirtyeight

Trumping the Vote

Teaching U.S. History this year is too much fun.  No matter who you’re rooting for or against, the cast of characters is so entertaining.

To help you make sense of it, I’m sharing what I find the most helpful to my students.  So, here are the four best tools (today) to understand what the heck is happening:

  1. David Wasserman’s delegate scorecard shows how much each of the remaining GOP 4 need in each upcoming state.  In the primary, the number is 1237.  You have to get there to get the nomination.
    1. Here is Wasserman again, but in 538.  His argument is this – if Cruz/Rubio/Kasich are going to stop Trump, at minimum, you have to win your own state.  March 1 – that’s Cruz in Texas.  For Rubio (Florida) and/or Kasich (Ohio) that’s March 15.  If Trump beats you in your home state, take your ball and go home sorry.
  2. Cook Political is key as well.  I check it daily.  Here’s Amy Walter explaining why she underestimated Trump.  If you want good solid analysis without the fluff, Cook Political is the place.
  3. Last but not least, once we get to the general election, the only # that matters is 270.  It’s not about the polls or the percentages – especially nationally.  It’s about can you get to 270 electoral votes.  This swing the vote tool is killer.  Move the sliders below and you can watch the states swing from blue to red or vice versa.  If it’s Trump v. Hilary, it’ll be the first time in American history that two general election candidates have unfavorables so high.

No matter how crazy things may be – these four tools remain helpful.